“Buy the Dip” - Okay, I bought the dip like a good investor, but what now?
Are you also going through the same frustrating phase when you have been on a never-ending crypto shopping spree only to watch the market dip even deeper?
Well, then, let us guess the question that's got you tossing and turning at night and scrolling endlessly during the day:
“When will the crypto bull run start!?”
If we nailed the guessing game, let us tell you we have something to scratch your itch right here.
We’ve searched the web, joined secret crypto chats, and read every expert tweet to bring you the most realistic answer to the billion-dollar question, ‘When will the crypto bull run start?’
So, grab your favourite mug of coffee and put on your thinking caps cause this blog may change how you look at the next crypto bull run.
Before we know when the crypto bull run will begin, let’s begin by understanding why the crypto market is bleeding red. After all, you can't predict tomorrow's weather without considering today's storm.
Why is the Crypto Market Down Today?
The cryptocurrency market has been experiencing a continuous downturn for the past few months with minimal recovery moments. By the end of May 2024, the total market capitalization dropped to $2.51 trillion. It further tripped to over 20.30% to about $2 trillion by July’s first week. This drop has left most investors scratching their heads, trying to understand the key factors causing the bloodbath and how far the recovery is.
The crypto market is down today for various reasons-
Bulk BTC Selling by the German Government
The main culprit that painted the market red is the German government’s recent Bitcoin sell-off in bulk. The German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) shifted 832.74 BTC, valued at approximately $51.97 million, to various International crypto exchanges. By June, this amount increased to over 6000 BTC, worth $382 million, at an average price of $63,700 per BTC. This sell-off still continues as the German government sold another $52 million worth of Bitcoin on July 2, 2024.
As per Cointelegraph, the wallets associated with the German government transferred 832.7 Bitcoins in four individual transactions on July 2nd.
To those who do not know, the German government has become a Bitcoin whale by accumulating Bitcoins over time through various means, primarily criminal seizures and other legal custodians. As the Bitcoin accumulation got stronger, the government’s influence over the market grew simultaneously. Therefore, its recent lion’s share in Bitcoin and sell-off has severely impacted the price and overall market dynamics.
According to multiple market analysts, the government is offloading its Bitcoin holdings because it believes the current Bitcoin price is suitable for selling. However, the fact that it still retains a larger portion of its holdings suggests its strong long-term perspective on Bitcoin’s value. The adverse effects of these sales on the market have led to significant drops in Bitcoin's price, shifting the Fear Greed Index from greed to fear. Since Bitcoin is the crypto market leader, its price decline has been reflected in altcoins of all kinds.
Bitcoin ETF Outflow
In addition to the German government’s big sell-off, the net fund outflow experienced by the Bitcoin Spot ETFs is another factor causing chaos in the market. The Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net fund outflow of $14 million on July 2, 2024, alone. While these ETFs saw continuous streaks of positive net inflows till March, they have experienced mixed outcomes in recent months. Since March 2024, the total net flow of these spot BitcoinETFs has been struggling to maintain the pre-march levels, with June witnessing one of the weakest total net flows.
A key reason behind the heavy fund outflow is the rising strength of the U.S. Dollar, as reflected in the U.S. dollar index (DXY) metric below.
A strengthened dollar usually means a low-risk appetite among investors, which explains the accelerating outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs in the last few months. These ETFs were the harbinger of the latest Bitcoin ATH of $73,000, and their rising net outflow heightened anxiety in the crypto market. However, the cumulative total net inflow for Bitcoin Spot ETFs after 119 trading days remains substantial at over $14 billion.
Mt. Gox’s Bankruptcy Redemption
Another factor contributing to the market's downturn is the potential $9 billion repayment from the collapsed cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox. This repayment adds to the selling pressure on the market, compounded by the German government's recent offloading of Bitcoin.
When the Bitcoin price fell below the crucial $60,000 psychological mark on July 3, it hinted that Mt. Gox may have potentially started releasing $9 billion worth of BTC to its users as part of its creditor repayments, expected to begin in early July.
Mt. Gox holds over $9.4 billion worth of Bitcoins owned by 127,000 creditors who have been waiting for over ten years to recover their funds. The on-chain Bitcoin data shows that an unknown whale sold $810 million worth of Bitcoin within 3 minutes in early July, suggesting the possibility that Mt. Gox may have something to do with the ongoing Bitcoin price fall.
This means many investors could cash their BTC holdings out after a decade of untouched profits. While multiple analysts suggest that the Bitcoin spot ETFs can possibly absorb the BTC released by Mt. Gox, it doesn't seem to have happened so far, given that Bitcoin is trading at its crucial support levels now.
Bitcoin Miners Preparation
The final nail in the coffin of this downfall is the Bitcoin miners who are possibly selling Bitcoins to make up for their revenue shortfall after the recent fourth Bitcoin halving cut their reward in half.
In a Bitcoin halving event, the reward for mining a new block reduces to half every four years. This phenomenon directly impacts the Bitcoin miners since their primary source of income is slashed in half. Imagine if your salary was suddenly cut by 50%—you’d struggle to make ends meet. A similar thing happens with Bitcoin miners who need to compensate for this drastic drop in revenue, or they can go out of business. Many analysts had already predicted a tough phase in the Bitcoin mining industry post-halving, where only the well-equipped and most efficient miners would survive.
During the first few weeks of June, Bitcoin miners sold more than $200 million worth of Bitcoin. This is also reflected in their Bitcoin holdings, which reached their lowest levels in 14 years. But this sell-off adds to the downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price, resulting in Bitcoin price dipping below $60,000 in only three months of hitting $73,750 ATH.
But if they are selling Bitcoin, why is the rest of the market falling with it?
Well, because when Bitcoin sneezes, the entire market catches the cold!
Since Bitcoin dominates the crypto market singlehandedly, its price falls directly affect the market sentiments, resulting in almost all altcoins losing significant value in the past few months.
So, what happens next?
Will the crypto bull run even come, or is it gone?
Let’s discuss that in detail.
When Will Crypto Bull Run Start?
An unsaid rule in crypto is that good things begin when everything looks bad. This perfectly applies to the ongoing crypto market crash, in which top cryptocurrencies like SOL, ETH, LINK, MATIC, and more are trading at strikingly low prices.
Multiple bullish factors are aligning well to start the crypto bull run perfectly.
These factors include-
- Successful completion of Bitcoin halving
- Launch of the first U.S based Bitcoin Spot ETFs
- Partial approval of Ethereum spot ETFs by SEC
- Successful completion of Ethereum’s Dencun Upgrade
- Upcoming Ethereum’s Pectra Upgrade
- Recently filing for SOL ETF by VanEck
- FED cutting interest rates
While the existence of these factors means half the work is done, the time it takes to impact the market dynamics will answer your question, “When will the crypto bull run start?”
However, the good news is that the crypto ecosystem will eventually find the perfect equilibrium. It always has. The market will regain stability and upward momentum when the Bitcoin sell-offs fade away in the upcoming months.
Another good reason to stay positive and affirmative on the hope that a crypto bull will start soon is the past three halving cycles that led Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices to skyrocket.
Crypto bull run start time has been as follows in the last three halvings-
- The 2012 crypto bull run started 48 days after the first Bitcoin halving.
- The 2016 crypto bull run started 259 days after the second Bitcoin halving.
- The 2020 crypto bull market started 149 days after the third Bitcoin halving.
It brings the average time of a crypto bull run to start at nearly 152 days, almost five months.
Since the fourth halving was completed on April 20, 2024, the ideal time for the crypto bull to start is mid-September 2024.
However, with the unexpected influx of Bitcoin, expecting a big plot twist in the start date of the crypto bull run seems like a no-brainer. As per the bearish market sentiments, the Crypto bull run will likely take longer than that to start. Even Bitcoin bulls have hinted that this crypto cycle might turn out differently due to the growing market maturity.
A well-reputed crypto asset manager, 22Shares, said, “ The bitcoin halving comes in a different, more mature environment.” It further added that Bitcoin’s expanding use cases, in addition to Bitcoin ETFs, are all expected to favour the largest crypto asset. But don’t hit the panic button yet because this has a positive side, too.
Multiple financial analysts have strong signals that this crypto bull run will be exceptional.
For instance, Bitwise’s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, also reported that the long-term demand for Bitcoin is underestimated.
Another factor causing the delay in the crypto bull run is well explained by 21Shares, which shared that registered investment advisors (RIA) need to wait at least nine days after a new product launch before investing. Therefore, RIAs only started investing in Bitcoin ETFs by the end of April. As per a data report obtained in May, the RIAs had purchased $3.5 billion in spot Bitcoin ETFs. It indicates that the actual effects of Bitcoin spot ETFs causing severe Bitcoin scarcity and driving up Bitcoin prices may still need some time to show up.
According to 21 Shares, “a mere 1% allocation of investment funds managed by RIAs into Bitcoin can trigger substantial inflows that can double Bitcoin's current market cap and squeeze supply in the process.”
But that doesn’t answer our question: When will the Crypto Bull Run start? 2024? Or 2025?
Well, trust us, you are pretty close to the answer.
Miles Deutscher, a crypto analyst on Twitter, shared in a tweet that a few months ago, it looked like an extremely accelerated cycle peaking in Q4 this year. He adds, “Now, after recent price action, I think Q1/Q2 2025 is more realistic.” He ends his tweet advising investors to use this extra time to their advantage.
Multiple other analysts have also predicted that the Crypto bull run will start late and peak in mid—or late 2025, citing the current consistent weakening trend.
QCP Capital, a global crypto asset trading firm, also released a report in June indicating that Bitcoin’s price consolidation can continue for the next two months, shifting the potential bull run to late 2024. Therefore, traders should not expect significant price movements in the immediate future.
However, aggressive buying pressure on call options seems to follow from September 2024 to December 2024. This suggests we can witness strong price movements in the last quarter 2024.
However, one must note that the US presidential elections will also occur in the last quarter. With November 5, 2024, being the election date of one of the most powerful world economies, crypto investors should expect heightened volatility in the last quarter of 2024. Since the two most popular candidates for these elections are Donald Trump and Joe Biden, their crypto stance and election wins will play an extremely important role in the crypto movement.
As many of you know, Trump has been a huge crypto supporter in this election campaign, in contrast to Biden's strict stance on digital assets. Therefore, who emerges victorious will also impact the market sentiments for the next bull run.
Lastly, Ethereum's upcoming Pectra upgrade is also expected to arrive by Q4 2024 or Q1 2025, making the perfect recipe for a bull run to begin.
So, the answer to the biggest question in the minds of crypto heads—when will the crypto bull run start? —is most likely either December 2024 or January 2025.
The exact time will vary depending on how all the factors above play out. However, take this analysis with a grain of salt, as the crypto market is extremely unpredictable and volatile.
FAQs
Will the Crypto bull run start in 2024 or 2025?
As per our analysis, the crypto bull run will start by the end of 2024. However, if the factors contributing to igniting this bull run unfold slower than expected, the start date of the crypto bull run can shift to the first quarter of 2025.
What are the best crypto for the 2024 bull run?
The best crypto for the 2024 bull run is - BTC, ETH, SOL, LINK, PEPE, PENDLE, and RNDR. These are our top cryptos to invest in before the bull run begins.
Will the crypto bull run start or not?
The start of the crypto bull run is almost inevitable, given the historic market movements, bullish cycles, and repetitive patterns. While the crypto bull run can be delayed due to multiple factors, investors and experts are confident about its certainty.
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