Bitcoin Halving 2024: Will the Price Go Up or Down?

If there is an event that every crypto enthusiast eagerly waits for, it is Bitcoin Halving. It is a quadrennial event that sends ripples of excitement in the crypto community due to its potential to shape the destiny of the world’s most renowned cryptocurrency, Bitcoin.

Historically, Bitcoin halving has been the game changer for the Bitcoin price trajectory and the growth of its ecosystem. All halving events of Bitcoin have given some magnificent hikes to Bitcoin price.

And thus, the million-dollar question that comes with the upcoming Bitcoin halving is: Will the Bitcoin Halving 2024 increase the price of Bitcoin?

To find the answer to this question, we will delve deep into the heart of Bitcoin Halving, exploring its historical significance, analyzing its effects on the market, and uncovering the strategies that can help to navigate this transformative event.

What is Bitcoin Halving?

As we know, Bitcoin is a decentralized digital money that exists in digital form only. Unlike regular money issued by banks, Bitcoin works differently. New Bitcoins come into the market through a “mining” process where powerful computers set by Bitcoin miners solve complex problems to earn new bitcoins as a reward. This mining reward keeps reducing to half every four years, lowering the number of new Bitcoins entering the crypto space. The event in which the mining reward decreases to half is Bitcoin Halving.

If you want to understand Bitcoin halving in detail, click here.

Below is the tabular representation of Bitcoin halving history along with the upcoming Bitcoin Halving Date event’s expected Dates, Rewards, and Block Heights.

The initial reward for Bitcoin mining was 50 BTC from 2008 to 2012. It means that if a miner successfully mined a Bitcoin block before the first Bitcoin halving, he used to get 50 bitcoins as a reward. The Bitcoin blockchain reduced this mining reward to 25 BTC in 2012 after the first Bitcoin halving. Again after four years, this reward was reduced to 12.5 BTC in 2016 and then 6.25 BTC in 2020. This mining reward will further reduce to 3.125 BTC after the fourth Bitcoin halving that will be occurring in 2024. This reduction of Bitcoin mining reward will continue till 2140 when the last Bitcoin halving would take place. In total, 32 Bitcoin halving events will take place. Out of these 32 Halving events, the Bitcoin network has only completed three so far.

Bitcoin Halving 2024 Date and Time

The next Bitcoin halving will occur between February 2024 to June 2024, when the Bitcoin block reward will reduce from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. As per various sources, the Bitcoin Halving will probably occur on April 26, 2024, at 11:59:22 AM UTC.

However, the actual Bitcoin Halving 2024 date and time depends on the mined blocks of Bitcoin. It is because halving in the Bitcoin blockchain starts only after the Bitcoin network mines 2,10,000 blocks. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin network needs to mine 118 blocks to initiate its next halving. Approximately 16 hours are remaining for this to happen. *

Bitcoin Halving 2024 Countdown

Updated on: 19 April 2024

*The above data is subject to change as Bitcoin's blockchain operates in a continuous dynamic process. Factors such as network hash rate fluctuations and block time variance may impact the precise timing of future halvings.  Always refer to real-time sources for the most up-to-date information regarding Bitcoin halving 2024.

Bitcoin Halving 2024 Price Prediction

Among the various aspects that intrigue Bitcoiners towards halving, Bitcoin price is the most paramount factor. Historically, Bitcoin halving has been the most powerful catalyst to bring the strongest bullish phases for Bitcoin. That’s why it is a smart move to understand the price possibilities associated with Bitcoin Halving 2024 in detail.

Bitcoin is continuously trying to recover from one of the worst bearish markets that made it shed over 70% of its value. After multiple crypto institutions declared bankruptcy and the catastrophic Terra LUNA collapse damaged investors' trust, Bitcoin and all blue-chip cryptocurrencies bled red for months. Though Bitcoin registered a much-needed rally of 40% in the first month of 2023 by retouching the $30,000 mark, it is still 60% down from its ATH. Investors have a divided opinion over how Bitcoin will perform for the rest of the year.

However, looking at the historical data, it was evident that Bitcoin registered some of the fastest price recoveries in history post undergoing halvings. For example, it gained about 8000% in only 12 months in 2012. Also, the last bull run, followed by Bitcoin halving in May 2020, took Bitcoin to a record high of $69,000 in November 2021. Due to these numbers, the next Bitcoin halving holds the potential to initiate another bull run for Bitcoin.

The previous price movements of Bitcoin post-halving indicate that Bitcoin price typically witnesses a surge of at least 20-25% within 150 days of halving. The coin further continues to display an upward growth afterward. According to this pattern, Bitcoin price can hit a minimum of $47,221 and a maximum of $56,462 post 150 days of the next Bitcoin halving. Bitcoin has shown a substantial increase after the year and a half of its halving events. If this trend continues in the next Bitcoin halving, Bitcoin investors would see a strong rally in 2025.

In the last cycle, the cryptocurrency showed an increase of 650%. Given the current scrutiny crypto has been facing from financial authorities, if we adjust this increase to around 500%, Bitcoin price may jump to $2,36,100 post the next halving event.

According to Bloomberg, the next Bitcoin halving 2024 can trigger a boost of a minimum of 81% in the price of Bitcoin. Its Intelligence Analyst, Jamie Douglas, predicted that Bitcoin would scale to $50,000 by April 2024 before the fourth Bitcoin halving.

Another well-known Bitcoin analyst, Plan B, recently announced that the price of Bitcoin will reach a staggering $5,32,000 by 2025. He made this prediction by applying the S2F (stock-to-flow) model that calculates the expected price hike of a commodity by its existing supply and new incoming supply ratio. The S2F model is often used to calculate possible price surges of Gold and Silver and is proven relatively reliable. According to it, the Bitcoin price after 2024 halving will lie in the range of $100,000 to $ 1 million, considering the wide error band.

One common thing between the predictions we discussed here is that all show an upward trend for Bitcoin post-halving. However, the exact surge in Bitcoin is hard to predict. According to our analysis, Bitcoin price could surge from $50,000 to $100,000 by 2025.

However, it is essential to note that the crypto market is fast-evolving. Thus, no one can say anything with certainty about it. Due to this reason, many sceptics have put forward the point that the previous halvings turned out to be astronomically high for Bitcoin because it was already gaining mainstream recognition in that period. But this time, the chaos generated due to the fall of FTX and Terra LUNA has shaken the investor trust in crypto. Therefore, it might resist the recovery of Bitcoin post-halving in 2024. Lastly, the current regulatory crackdown on crypto by multiple financial authorities might also restrain the expectation of Crypto investors from the next Bitcoin halving 2024.

How will Bitcoin Halving Affect Bitcoin Price?

Demand and Supply dynamics is the most important factor deciding the price behaviour of any asset, and Bitcoin's halving impacts it.

Here’s how,

Bitcoin halving cuts the block reward of Bitcoin miners to half. This reward reduction decreases the rate at which new bitcoins enter the market. A reduced supply of newly minted bitcoins creates a scarcity of Bitcoin among investors. This scarcity lowers the selling pressure in the market, causing the Bitcoin price to rise.

Furthermore, Bitcoin has a limited supply of 21 million. Out of this supply, miners have already mined over 90% of the bitcoins that could ever exist. Since Bitcoin halving reduces the rate at which new bitcoins come into the market, it makes Bitcoin scarce over time.

Historically, Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio (ratio of existing supply to new supply) is directly correlated with the increase in the Bitcoin price. Thus, a reduction in new supply affects Bitcoin price.

Another reason Bitcoin halving is a significant event for Bitcoin price is the market perception and investor sentiments. Halving generates a lot of attention and hype in the crypto community and beyond. When this hype mixes with the positive sentiments of Bitcoin halving, it attracts new investors and encourages them to buy Bitcoin, driving up its price.

Lastly, the historical price patterns of Bitcoin associate the substantial price rallies of Bitcoin with the Bitcoin halving events. The most prominent examples of this correlation are the 2016 and 2020 Bitcoin halvings, followed by a meteoric bull market in crypto. Thus, millions of investors believe the upcoming bitcoin halving 2024 would bring another bull run for crypto.

Though one must remember that past performance does not guarantee future results, it is essential to be careful of your investment choices and manage risk.

Will Miners Stop Mining Bitcoin After Bitcoin Halving 2024?

It is a common misconception that the number of miners interested in mining Bitcoin would decrease due to reduced profitability post-halving. However, it is highly unlikely to happen. This is because even though the mining reward reduces to half, the miners will keep getting the transaction fee for the transactions stored in the block they mine. Moreover, since Bitcoin price usually always experiences a bullish phase post-halving, the mining of Bitcoin has been financially beneficial for Bitcoin miners.

One inevitable outcome of halving is the reduced Bitcoin reward for miners. It means the cost of mining a certain amount of Bitcoin will almost double post-halving in 2024. Thus, if the bitcoin price does not rally after halving, the net profit of miners can turn negative. It may lead to them facing losses and some exiting the mining space. Thus, energy cost, bitcoin price movement, and other political factors will determine miners' fate post-halving.

Will Halving be Good or Bad for Bitcoin?

Whether Bitcoin halving will be good or bad for Bitcoin depends on one’s perspective and some key factors. Since halving decreases the rate at which new bitcoins are created, it is an important component of Bitcoin’s deflationary model. In the past 14 years of Bitcoin, halving events have always boosted the price, demand, and adoption of Bitcoin. It also solidifies the efficiency of the unique approach adopted by Satoshi toward money. Moreover, bitcoin halving occurs every four years, giving Bitcoin miners and investors enough time to plan their strategy accordingly. It eliminates the risk of volatility from sudden supply shocks.

However, the other side of Bitcoin halving is its effect on the Mining profitability of Bitcoin. For miners operating with less equipment and higher cost of mining, Bitcoin halving may create challenges to remain profitable. Thus, the balance between the reduced mining incentive and bitcoin demand-driven price increase is necessary to make having a successful event. Furthermore, market dynamics, regulatory environment, and crypto sentiments are factors that togetherly decide the consequences of Bitcoin halving.

FAQs

What happens when Bitcoin halves?

When Bitcoin halves, the Bitcoin blockchain undergoes Bitcoin halving every four years. Under this halving, the Bitcoin block reward (mining reward) that Bitcoin miners get to mine Bitcoin blocks reduces to half. Since the block reward for bitcoin mining is new bitcoins, the bitcoin halving reduces the amount of new bitcoins that enters the market.

How long after Halving does Bitcoin peak?

It usually takes over a year for Bitcoin to start an upward rally after halving. To further reach its peak, Bitcoin usually takes around 1.5 years post-halving. However, it is not a factual timeline, as the exact timing depends on factors like Bitcoin demand, regulatory status, investor sentiments, and new projects in the market.

What will happen in the 2024 Bitcoin halving?

In the 2024 Bitcoin halving, the block reward given to miners will be reduced by half. This means miners will receive half the newly created Bitcoins for successfully mining a block. The halving will lead to a decreased rate of inflation and contribute to the overall scarcity of Bitcoin. It may also create a supply shortage if the demand for Bitcoin increases. Market speculation and anticipation can also increase, potentially increasing Bitcoin price volatility.

Does Bitcoin price drop after Halving?

If Bitcoin price drops or rises after halving are not predictable with certainty. However, traditionally, Bitcoin has experienced magnificent price increases post every halving event. Since the halving causes a reduction in block rewards, it decreases selling pressure for Bitcoin, causing its price to surge.

What is the date for the next Bitcoin Halving?

The most expected date for Bitcoin halving is April 26, 2024. However, the exact halving date depends on when the Bitcoin network would mine 2,10,000 blocks. Thus, the halving can take place between February 2024 to June 2024.

Should I buy Bitcoin before Halving?

Whether you should buy Bitcoin before halving is subjective and depends on various factors, including your risk tolerance, investment goals, and market conditions. If you are willing to invest for the long term in Bitcoin, doing it before halving can be a good decision. However, Bitcoin is a highly volatile investment; one must thoroughly research it before investing. You can learn how to buy Bitcoin in India